The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning in its 2024 Emissions Gap Report, highlighting that greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high. The UN stressed the urgency of immediate and comprehensive action to avoid surpassing the critical 1.5°C global temperature increase limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“Climate crunch time is here,” stated UNEP’s Executive Director, Inger Andersen. She emphasized that global mobilization is needed on an unprecedented scale and speed, starting immediately, to fulfill climate pledges. If nations fail to act, she warned that the 1.5°C goal will be at risk, potentially leading to a scenario where global temperatures rise significantly above two degrees Celsius.
The report was launched during the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, and it tracks the gap between current emissions trajectories and the levels needed to limit warming to well below 2°C while striving for the 1.5°C target. According to UNEP, countries must collectively commit to cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035. These commitments, termed nationally determined contributions (NDCs), outline specific actions to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts, including securing necessary funding and updating plans every five years.
Without dramatic cuts in emissions, the world could face a catastrophic temperature rise of 3.1°C. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized that the emissions gap is not merely theoretical; there is a direct correlation between rising emissions and increasingly severe climate disasters. “We are teetering on a planetary tightrope,” he warned, stressing that leaders must bridge this gap to avert climate catastrophe, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
The upcoming COP29 UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, set for November, will serve as a critical platform for discussions on new, ambitious national climate plans. Guterres highlighted the need for these plans to align with the 1.5°C target, urging major economies, especially G20 members responsible for around 80% of emissions, to take the lead in reducing greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors.
The report indicates that existing, affordable technologies could facilitate the necessary emissions reductions to meet the 1.5°C limit. Significant reductions of up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030 and 41 gigatons by 2035 are achievable through enhanced solar and wind energy usage, which could contribute 27% of the total reduction in 2030 and 38% by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation could provide around 20% of the necessary reductions.
However, the report also cautions that achieving these goals will require unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments. This includes maximizing socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimizing trade-offs, emphasizing the need for immediate and concerted global efforts to address climate change.
